You may have read that demand for plant-based products has peaked, but new data for the out of home sector suggests otherwise. By David Burrows.
Beef, pork and chicken are popular foods in Great Britain. Data compiled by Circana, and shared with Footprint, shows that in the year to the end of August 2023 there were some 4.8 billion servings of these proteins across the out of home (OOH) sector.
Chicken, at 2.1 billion servings, was the favourite, followed by pork, 1.5 billion, and beef, 1.2 billion. Other meat products mustered 254.6 million servings in quick service restaurants, pubs and cafés, with fish and seafood just shy of 950 million.
It all sounds like good news for meat, fish and poultry. But these numbers are all down – in fact significantly down – compared to 2019. Beef servings have dropped 17%, pork 24% and poultry 11%. Fish and seafood servings fell 21%, while other meats were down 24%. It was a similar story across the other members of Europe’s ‘big five’ countries that Circana assessed (France, Spain, Italy and Germany).
The period the data covers of course takes in the covid-19 pandemic and the cost of living crisis. There is one protein category that has gained from others’ pain however: servings of plant-based meat replacements increased 42% in the same period, to 254.6 million. Plant-based burgers have proved particularly popular – up 75% in the four years to 128.1 million servings, with other plant-based products up 18% to 126.5 million.
“Plant-based products, particularly burgers, are experiencing significant market growth and are expected to sustain this momentum through 2024,” said Jochen Pinsker, senior vice president of European foodservice at Circana, which formerly traded as IRI and The NPD Group. “This is particularly evident as the quality, taste, and texture of plant-based products have significantly improved compared to offerings from just a few years ago,” he added.
Plant-based problems
The findings come as plant-based products face arguably their most testing period. Critics and consumers alike are scrutinising the nutritional content of the products. Long ingredient lists have become a turn-off as interest in and concern about ultra-processed foods rises. Research is increasingly pitching meats against the alternatives as confusion abounds (there is also no shortage of misinformation going around, as Changing Markets Foundation reported recently).
Research published in The Lancet in November showed that the higher the consumption of ultra-processed foods, the higher the risk of suffering from a combination of chronic diseases including cancer, diabetes and heart disease (known as multimorbidity). Animal products and sweetened beverages were identified as particular risks, whereas ”other subgroups such as ultra-processed breads and cereals or plant-based alternatives were not associated with risk”. ProVeg has also recently conducted research in this space, showing meat substitutes tend to have a slightly better nutritional composition than animal products.
However, The Times this month reported that plant-based wraps, burgers and pizzas are no healthier than the traditional meat alternatives, according to a study across 10 fast food chains with the most branches in Australia, Canada, Poland, Britain and the US.
The Telegraph has also reported criticisms of the products. Among the experts it spoke to this month is Chris Elliott, professor of food safety at Queen’s University Belfast. “People are buying these foods thinking they’re being healthy, but actually what they’re doing is eating lots of additives that you wouldn’t find in ‘whole foods’,” he said.
Elliott claimed that it is not people’s health or sustainability that is driving companies towards plant-based products, but profit. “The profit margins on those products are five times what conventional food is,” he explained. “That’s the driver, the driver is money.”
Sales of plant-based products have slumped though. “Shoppers are less willing to pay the premium associated with meat alternatives and are switching to cheaper sources of nutrition,” said NIQ senior insight analyst Carol Ratcliffe in December. NIQ data for The Grocer showed only three of the top 20 meat-free brands are in volume growth, while the top five brands have together shifted 4.3 million fewer kilos.
Indeed, key brands have been pulled (like Nestlé’s Garden Gourmet, from retail only) or fallen into administration (like Plant & Bean), or saved from it (Meatless Farm). Heather Mills’ VBites brand fell into administration just before Christmas.
In a lengthy statement following the news, Mills took aim at the “amorphous corporate entities” that she feels are ruining the sector. She pointed to companies including Meatless Farm, Plant & Bean, Miyoko’s Creamery and Violife UK which have all suffered from events such as unexpected investor pull-outs, factory closures, unwanted management takeovers or, in the case of the former two, liquidation following corporate investment.
She also had a pop at the meat sector. Research by Changing Markets of 285 million social media posts showed how almost 1 million of them “bend the truth to promote meat and dairy or attack greener alternatives and climate science”. The group also tracked online attacks on alternative proteins and posts that exaggerate the benefits of meat and dairy directly back to industry.
Mills said: “One of the major issues the plant based market needs to tackle is the galvanised and well funded marketing of misinformation currently being undertaken by the meat and dairy industries – and sadly backed by select celebrities who, in my view, should take their responsibilities as influencers much more seriously. Many of the campaigns we are seeing such as the ‘Got milk’ campaign by the dairy industry, joking about plant milk, insulting lactose intolerant people as well as ethical environmental animal lovers, are well-funded gaslighting initiatives that detract from the facts and sow the seeds of doubt in consumers who deserve to know the truth.”
Indeed, much will be made of this month’s “let’s eat balanced’ campaign, run by the AHDB. The campaign adverts “highlight that British beef, lamb, and dairy are natural sources of protein and vitamin B12 which helps to reduce tiredness”. A new website also offers information on nutrition, farming standards and how red meat and dairy produced in the UK are “among the most sustainable in the world”.
Battle royale
Circana’s Pinsker offered some words of wisdom for those hoping to maintain momentum on substitute meats. “To be successful you must ensure complete transparency with consumers when it comes to revealing the exact source of your meat replacement ingredients,” he said. Companies must also try to avoid setting excessively high prices for plant-based alternatives (which is tempting during Veganuary), given the current high prices of meat and consumers’ sensitivity to price hikes.
Time will tell whether OOH can continue to succeed with plant-based products as grocery struggles with a decline in sales. Carbon could be the card that more companies need to play. “When promoting new plant-based menu options, emphasise their positive environmental impact rather than their health benefits,” Pinsker added.
