Experts predict what’s set to be hot in the packaging world this year as companies adapt to new laws, embrace technology and supply sustainable solutions. By David Burrows.
Brands will continue to switch to fibre-based packaging this year to ‘mitigate [extended producer responsibility] EPR costs’, while volumes of hard-to-recycle multi-layer packaging will continue to shrink, according to Innova Market Insights.
Technology will also play a bigger role in packaging, with AI systems expected to “enhance and expedite this industry shakeup”, the experts said. Regulations will also help to drive more reusable models.
According to Innova’s consumer survey (2024), 64% of global consumers already interact with QR codes on packaging. The market researcher’s data also indicates there has been a 32% growth in global food and beverage launches with QR codes on the product packaging (2020–2024, CAGR).
Connected packaging will continue to proliferate across FMCG industries but at an accelerated rate, the experts said. Digital technologies like RFID, QR codes, augmented reality and invisible watermarks “hold the power to revolutionise the circular packaging economy, supply chain transparency and digital marketing”.
Respondents to a recent McKinsey research report said generative AI can boost research and development productivity, for example by helping companies generate new ideas through intellectual property (IP) and patent analytics, providing customer analysis, generating customisation options, accelerating the ‘idea-to-visualisation’ process, and streamlining field-testing feedback.
As an example of how generative AI already being used, one large plastics packaging company is integrating it into its design studio to create user-centric packaging designs that comply with sustainability standards.
Regulators are increasingly incentivising the transition to smart, sustainable packaging too. The European Commission is expected to propose the digital product passport as part of its Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation to advance transparency and sustainability.
Writing on the subject recently, lawyers at Osborne Clarke said DPP will allow manufacturers and importers to “communicate the authenticity and sustainability of their product to the public, increasing their competitiveness on the market”.
Akhil Aiyar, innovation consultant at Innova, said: “Digital passports will combine with AI sorting to provide accurate material separation, improving supply chain efficiency and transparency while elevating the circular economy.”
Prioritising paper
Aiyar also predicted that the ‘paperisation’ trend will gather pace this year. Innova research shows 41% of global consumers say paper has ‘excellent’ recyclability, and a further 33% rate it as ‘good’. Debate over the recyclability of paper-based packaging, consisting of plastic barriers or novel coatings remains heated.
“More and more businesses will embrace paper-based packaging to mitigate pEPR [packaging EPR] costs and entice increasingly eco-conscious consumers,” Aiyar explained in an interview with Packaging Insights. “Innovation in advanced barrier coatings will be crucial in extending paper-based packaging to more technically challenging applications, like fresh foods,” he added.
Foodservice companies have been exploring plastic-free solutions with growing intensity (and investment), either to meet regulatory changes or reflect consumer demand. UberEats has for example invested in Releaf’s leaf-made paper bags. Renewable packaging solutions will gain market share this year, particularly in foodservice, according to Innova, as more consumers reject petrochemical plastics in favour of bio-based alternatives.
Bio boost
Innova’s survey found that only 5% of global consumers perceive bioplastics as ‘unsustainable’, while 27% think these materials are ‘excellent’ for reducing carbon footprint. The European Chemical Industry Council predicts bioplastics production will effectively match fossil-fuel-based plastics production by 2035. European Bioplastics expects global bioplastics production to grow by 29% this year.
Aiyar said these materials “make sense” for small formats like fruit stickers but the jury is still out on their use for larger formats. “[…] bioplastic packaging producers must demonstrate that their larger format products can be effectively recycled to achieve more substantial growth. The industry-backed ReBioCycle initiative will aim to demonstrate that this year,” he added.
Reusable and refillable packaging models have “tentatively emerged” in some food and drink categories but “remain scarce” compared to deeply ingrained single-use systems, noted Innova.
New rules – though watered down by intense industry lobbying from the likes of McDonald’s and the European Paper Packaging Association – should help to drive some change. The EU packaging and packaging waste regulation (PPWR) requires takeaway businesses to accept reusable containers at no additional charge, and offer 10% of products for sale in reusable packaging. European regulators also want to reach 10% reusable beverage containers by 2030, increasing to 40% by 2040. “Our research suggests that consumers are ready to embrace reusable packaging, but not at the expense of convenience, cost, or hygiene,” Aiyar explained.
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