Climate change is redrawing the map for production of fine wines with northern European countries like Denmark and the UK set to benefit at the expense of traditional heartlands like Spain and Italy.
Rising temperatures and periods of extreme drought will continue to threaten vineyards in traditional wine-producing regions of the south, while northern areas will gain ground with longer growing seasons and milder conditions.
The gloomy prognosis for southern growers featured in a new ‘Fine Wines and Restaurants Market Monitor’ report by consultancy Bain & Company in collaboration with Altagamma, an association of luxury Italian companies.
The report warned that if the climate challenge is not addressed Cabernet Sauvignon, once exclusive to southern Europe, may thrive in central and northern regions by 2100. To adapt, it said the wine industry must invest in policy reforms, agricultural technology and collaborative solutions to ensure a sustainable future.
Fine wines occupy the luxury end of the wine market. Despite accounting for just 1.5% of the global wine market by volume, they command 11% of its total value, according to the report.
After a decade of steady growth, the sector experienced a decline of 2-3% in 2024 driven by inflationary pressures that led consumers to trade down to less premium segments.
The report also identified a trend towards alcohol moderation by younger generations as another headwind facing fine wines (and indeed all wines). Gen Z in particular is increasingly embracing “NoLo” (no and low alcohol) products, according to the report, meaning brands will need to create new value propositions that cater to the consumption habits of the next generation of wine consumers.
