Research suggests people using GLP-1 medications eat smaller portions, fewer snacks and less meat. Nick Hughes considers the implications for businesses and policy makers.
Can I ask you a somewhat provocative question? Does the key to eating healthily lie in regular use of weight loss drugs?
Before you start screaming at your computer screen please rest assured this question is designed to elicit strong opinion. The way in which we perceive solutions to food-related challenges like obesity is often split along ideological lines – those who trust in science to find a fix and those who believe the answer lies in changing a system that creates negative externalities (acknowledging that there are people who straddle both camps).
Whatever our individual view of the world, research emerging from the US suggests that, at the very least, the impact of drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy on people’s dietary habits needs careful consideration both by food businesses and policy makers. Why? Because a recently published study of weight loss drug users in the US found a significant change in their food shopping habits after six months’ adoption of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro.
Such drugs, used in the management of both obesity and diabetes, contain the active ingredient semaglutide, which mimics the naturally occurring hormone glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) thus helping regulate blood-sugar levels and appetite. The global market for GLP-1 drugs had already reached around $50bn (£40bn) by the end of 2024 and projections suggest market value is set to at least double by 2030.
The US study found that households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their spending on groceries by around 6% within six months of adoption, increasing to 9% for higher-income households. The figures were largely driven by reduced purchases of calorie-dense, processed foods including an 11% decline in savoury snacks and 9% fall in sweet bakery items. Eye-catchingly from a sustainability perspective, researchers also observed a 6% reduction in meat and 7% in cheese spend. By contrast, spend on fresh produce and yoghurt increased slightly.
This remains an emerging area for scientific research and we should be cautious of drawing concrete conclusions from one study. Indeed, researchers observed that the magnitude of the reductions in spending tailed off between six and 12 months, although they remained statistically significant. Their conclusion, however, was unequivocal: GLP-1 medications have the potential to significantly reshape consumer food demand as adoption continues to grow.
Big questions
For hospitality and foodservice businesses, and policy experts alike, the results present some big questions. How might growing use of weight-loss drugs impact how people consume food outside of the home including what and where they choose to eat? If (and it’s a big if) evidence continues to show these drugs shift consumption away from meat and dairy and towards fresh produce what are the implications from a policy perspective? Does it mean weight loss drugs really do have a key role to play in shifting society to more sustainable diets? Do governments therefore need be less interventionist in trying to shape dietary choices and food environments? Or should we be sceptical over relying on weight loss drugs to drive adoption of sustainable diets?
So far, the commercial impact on the UK foodservice market has been minimal. “While GLP-1 drugs are attracting huge attention, they are tightly regulated and only accessible to a select group of adults who meet specific criteria and are referred by an NHS specialist,” explains Trish Caddy, associate director of foodservice at market intelligence company Mintel.
Although semaglutide was included in NHS recommendations for obesity treatment last year, few people have been able to access it due to supply issues and a prohibitive price tag of around £200 per month of treatment. There is, however, evidence of strong demand from those living with diet-related conditions like obesity and diabetes. Data from Mintel shows that 25% of Brits would be interested in using injectable weight loss drugs, rising to 46% of under-35s.
With almost two-thirds of adults either overweight or obese, “it’s no surprise that Brits are showing so much interest in the new weight loss drugs, like Ozempic and Wegovy”, says Toby Clark from Mintel Consulting, the company’s consultancy arm.
Clark says it’s expected that more than 3 million people could eventually qualify for weight loss drugs on the NHS. “This will have a huge impact on people’s day-to-day lives, from what we eat, to how we shop, and the way we socialise,” he predicts.
Healthier choices
Clark notes how restaurants and bars are already being affected by a fall in alcohol consumption among health-conscious younger Brits as well as a shift towards ‘competitive socialising’ in venues like escape rooms. Weight loss drugs will accelerate this trend, he suggests, especially as reports indicate they reduce people’s cravings for alcohol too.
As well as tracking people’s grocery shopping habits, the US study explored how use of weight loss drugs impacted their spending on food outside of the home in what they called “limited-service establishments”, such as fast-food chains and coffee shops. They found that users reduced their spending at breakfast and especially during dinner times. Foodservice businesses will be watching such trends with a mixture of interest and anxiety.
More widespread usage of these drugs could also impact the types of food people want to eat outside of the home, not just the quantity. Caddy suggests users motivated by health goals could drive increased demand for healthier dining options. “This could close the ‘say-do’ gap, as consumers often say they want healthier choices, yet end up choosing indulgent treats,” she says. “A weight-conscious culture could create a real desire for healthier options. As a result, foodservice businesses may see increased demand for lighter, nutritious meals.”
Global food brands are already factoring these emerging trends into their innovation pipelines. PepsiCo chief executive officer, Ramon Laguarta, told analysts recently that “the number one solution for consumers to stay in our categories is small portions of our favourites, ideally improved favourites with lower sodium and lower fat and artificial [ingredients]”.
Nestlé, meanwhile, has launched an entirely new brand of portion-controlled frozen meals called Vital Pursuit targeted at people using GLP-1 drugs.
Portion control
Foodservice businesses may need to start thinking in similarly strategic ways about how to cater to both normal and medically-suppressed appetites. This might mean offering a range of different plate sizes or more sharing options. There may be food waste implications too where users of weight loss drugs struggle to consume the same-sized portion as non-users.
Then there are the looming policy questions. A 6% fall in meat consumption as identified in the US study would – if sustained and scaled – have a significant knock-on effect on the UK food system. The UK Government has to-date refused to recommend that people eat less meat, despite evidence consistently showing that cuts in consumption are needed to meet nature and climate goals. Might politicians see weight loss drugs as giving them a free pass to stay out of the dietary debate?
Some food systems experts believe that would be a mistake. “While there is no doubt that these drugs are enormously effective in treating obesity and other diet-related diseases like type two diabetes, there is still a really urgent need for the government to focus on prevention as much as treatment, and regulate to improve the food environment to stop people developing obesity in the first place,” says Rebecca Tobi, senior business and investment engagement manager at The Food Foundation. “Otherwise it’s a bit like running a bath and not having the plug in,” she adds.
In its recent ‘Broken plate’ report assessing the state of the UK’s food environment across eight key metrics spanning health, sustainability and accessibility, the charity concluded that it is extremely difficult to eat healthily and sustainably when powerful forces are combining to push us in the other direction.
As Tobi says: “Given the current cost to the government of such drugs and the fact we know people regain much of the weight as soon as they come off GLPs, the government must ensure that the food industry is better regulated to support healthy and sustainable diets with a food environment that supports everyone to access and afford healthy, nourishing food.”
